It is interesting to note that the longer a person has played BJ, ie., The more and the broader his BJ experience is, the less he is likely to be a card counter. Card counting, in the long run is generally just a phase that the devoted player goes through. By devoted, I mean devoted to serious learning, as well as playing. The typical player tends to go through an identifiable sequence of learning phases. First he plays and quickly learns how tough the game actually is and what a huge and quick cash drain it can be. Most quit at that point.

Others are driven either by a need to get even with the casinos or a yearning for knowledge. So they begin to "read up" on the game. Either way, they typically go to the gaming section of a bookstore, look over the myriad of "knowledge" available and buy several books by their covers and maybe a quick glance through. These will most likely be card counting books because that is mostly all that is available in most book stores. Pouring over these books at home, the first thing they will notice is that these books do not compete with one another at all but, rather, strongly agree with one another, and even recommend each other. This unity gives the reader tremendous confidence in his "project".

Soon we will see him home practicing card counting with a stop watch. His first attempts will have him counting down a deck in something more than 35 seconds and usually making several mistakes. Typically his first goal will be to beat 30 seconds without any errors. Most have more difficulty, at this point, with the card manipulation and less and less with keeping the count correctly. 20 seconds becomes a tough barrier to overcome until his card handling catches up to his counting skills. A few will eventually beat 15 seconds but most never quite make 20 seconds. During this phase, our devoted counter in training tends to live, eat, sleep and talk BJ often to the exclusion of all of life's other interests. He quickly becomes a "bore" to most everyone around him, much to his surprise, and learns that BJ is not a spectator sport and is totally boring to the average person.

He finds that nothing will clear out his section of the lunch table faster. He longs for and searches for others with mutual interests. And he finds them. He quickly learns that counters are numerous and have their own magazines, more books and internet groups. He becomes a counter groupie and quickly learns that this group is well organized with their own hierarchy. The length of this phase depends largely on two factors. How much he plays and how much of that play is in Nevada. Many students of the game who can't afford to actually play find themselves on the groupie trail for a long time because there is nothing to discourage them, like losing play, and everything to encourage them. They are constantly bombarded with encouragement on the merits of counting as well as the discouragement of any other method. If the students play is limited to Nevada or mostly Nevada, this is also likely to prolong his counting phase simply because counting works better in Nevada than anywhere else because of single and two deck BJ as well as 6 as opposed to 8 deck shoe games as well as the reduced average players per game in Nevada. He may even become a successful counter in Nevada although this will almost always entail self taught improvisations like sticking to single deck and developing a talent for when and where to play - items he is not likely to find in his book collection. Outside of Nevada, however, the counter often becomes quickly discouraged and either quits the game or develops other ways or learns alternate methods of play. I won't say that there are no successful counters outside of Nevada but I will say that if there are, they are an extremely rare breed and have adapted to a situation by improvisation. For instance, in Zero Proximity, a counting system, that those 4 deck games with a count spread that consistently remains between plus and minus 9 are usually beatable with basic strategy and advantage betting by increasing your bet as the count approaches zero. Some have also successfully applied this system to two deck. Now, don't think even for a minute that I have revealed enough here for you to actually go out and do this.
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The quick discouragement of the outside Nevada counting student comes from three sources. He quickly sees losses far in excess of those talked about in counting books and far in excess of those explained away by "standard deviation". And those losses are usually confirmed by other counting students around him. Next, he soon realizes that the outside Nevada casinos have no fear of, or respect for, his card counting efforts. That wasn't in the books. The books talked about having to wear disguises and perfecting a good act. And finally the real world of Blackjack Biases hits him like a brick. Since this subject wasn't even touched on in the books he read, he quickly suspects his books are lacking in real world fact and familiarity. At this stage some counting students revolt to the point of book burning ceremonies.

We need to be careful here to distinguish between bias and coincidence. Webster defines coincidence as a sequence of events that, although accidental, seems to be planned or arranged. That is the same definition I would use for bias except that I would add: "caused by an unidentified or identified outside influence". If we get, let's say, a dozen class A hands in a row, (hands we couldn't have lost no matter how we played them), we can chalk this up to coincidence. But, if we are getting two or three times our fair share of class A hands for several hours we are talking bias. Bias is, therefore, when something is occurring far too often or far longer than can be explained by coincidence. It has a basis, usually mathematical, but we don't necessarily know what that basis is. By the way, don't think that the casinos always know either.

THE DEALER TEN UP BIAS:

Let's look at the dealer ten up bias for a minute. This is perhaps the easiest bias to spot and the hardest to explain. I'm convinced that casinos do not know the cause. I believe they are strictly looking at cause and effect. When we use this particular shuffle we begin to see the ten up bias at this particular crowd level. I think that's probably all they know. I doubt they understand the actual mechanics of it any more than we do. (don't). We know that there are 4 tens, on average, in every 13 cards dealt. We know, therefore, that the dealer should average 4 first card tens (ten ups) for every 13 rounds dealt. In Las Vegas, the dealer is usually very close to the 4 for 13 average. In fact, that is why the Bahamas Hole Card Trick is so easy to spot in Vegas. The dealer is getting too many ten ups. But in AC and to some degree in MN, and only on very crowded nights, we sometimes see the dealers getting way more than 4 / 13 tens. And when we see it, we see it consistently, hand after hand, table after table, and in AC, casino after casino. If we found a table where the dealer was getting 4.5 / 13 ten ups, we would chalk that up to coincidence. But what do we chalk it up to when the dealer is getting 7 / 13 and this is going on table after table? Coincidence - NO WAY! Standard deviation - NO WAY! Let me give you some clues: We only see this in very crowded conditions. We only see it when the tables have been full for at least several hours. We see it far more often with 8 deck than 6. We see it most often on three day holiday weekends. I believe that this bias and probably all biases are rooted in the fact that the dealer plays one way (dealer strategy) and the players play another way (basic strategy). I believe that this sets up sequence rhythms in the shoe causing certain repetitions on the table.

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Another very common bias is dealer ten magnetism. I find myself chanting. Two tens out and the dealer got both of them or three tens out and the dealer got two of them. It seems like once this begins it keeps right on happening. When this bias shows its ugly face we often begin counting on the dealer getting her ten down to match her ten up because it just keeps happening. We see dealers averaging way more than their normal 18.2 per hand and this bias is often accompanied by a low DBR. When these biases are together accompanied by an obscene number of dealer ten ups then we know we are in AC and it's Saturday night again. What have your experiences been and what do you think causes them?

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